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Sometimes players would ask other dealers what they ought to do with a difficult hand. The dealer would, without meaning to, offer the wrong advice.

He would perform research for NASA in which, essentially, he disproved the perceived utility of napping. Jeff Luhnow, who had joined the front office of the Cardinals the year before.

He had designed suits intended to protect troops from nuclear, biological and chemical warfare. He had helped start an Internet business, PetStore.

The odds are the odds. Over the next seven seasons the Cardinals would draft more players who became big leaguers than any other organization.

But he was not in St. Luhnow brought Mejdal aboard to be his director of decision sciences. The new director of pro scouting was Kevin Goldstein, who had been a respected writer for Baseball Prospectus but had never worked in pro baseball.

There he had to keep a healthy organization healthy. In Houston he was asked to figure out how to defibrillate a club that was dying. Worse, the farm promised no quick replenishments.

Luhnow and his men envisioned a decision tree, with that win team at its roots and a sustainable championship club at its tip.

That meant every decision they made, no matter how painful, would be based upon the probability that it would be helpful in the long term.

They would, in other words, hit on 16 against a seven every time. This was partly a financial decision: When Crane bought the team from Drayton McLane, it was running, sources say, an annual deficit in the tens of millions.

Crane was not driven to spend more than necessary while the team was losing—a period he planned would last no longer than a few years.

Our fans have already been on this decline, from to But for us, it was. You care about how close we are to winning a championship in It is one thing to commit to only making decisions that will lead to a long-term goal, and another to figure out how to make those decisions.

Blackjack is an exercise in hard probabilities. Evaluating baseball players is something else. Some information you can gather about a baseball player is hard: But much of it is soft: They are trying to do it in a way that synthesizes quantitative and qualitative information about players.

But from the very beginning in St. Louis, Jeff framed it as an and question. The question was not which one to use, but how to combine them.

The system then runs regressions against a database that stretches back to at least , when statistics for college players had just begun to be digitized.

If scouts perceived past players to possess attributes similar to a current prospect, how did that prospect turn out? The end result is expressed as a numerical projection which roughly translates into how many runs the player can be expected to produce compared with what the team is likely to have to pay him.

The major league team, buoyed by recent promotions of top prospects like outfielder George Springer who energized the club with both his constant dance moves and his 12 home runs in his first 47 games and first baseman Jon Singleton, went 15—14 in May, its first winning month since September Springer and Singleton have complemented holdovers like diminutive second baseman Jose Altuve who is batting.

The progress made in the last few years, however, has come at a cost. The Astros are not a restaurant that, when faced with dwindling returns, can shut down, renovate, hire a new chef, reimagine the menu and relaunch.

They had to stay open for business. Business has been bad. They drew a combined 3. Several games have gotten local TV ratings of 0.

They have even been made fun of by Alex Trebek, on Jeopardy! The answer, last November: One result of their poor performance was that the Astros this year became the first team to have the first pick in three consecutive amateur drafts.

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